Low-res DTVs Needed to Meet 2009 Transition Date
January 7, 2007, 6:11 PM
Scott Fulton, BetaNews: Sharon Fisher is looking into every conceivable angle of consumer electronics, as our exclusive analyst all this week. She's a former Gartner analyst, most recently with Computerworld. Sharon, how, exactly, is this digital television transition plan supposed to be pulled off by 2009 if we don't really have low-def digital television manufacturing plans on the horizon?
Sharon Fisher, BetaNews Senior CES Analyst: The complication for everyone is that 'television' is used interchangeably for three different things: the physical television set, the television signals that broadcasters transmit, and the television programming itself. In addition, some people conflate the terms "digital television" and "high definition television."
By the deadline, analog broadcasting signals will cease and all signals will be only in digital. Existing analog television sets will be able to receive digital television signals with a special device. (Actually, most major television markets transmit in digital already. The National Association of Broadcasters keeps an up-to-date list.)
Digital television sets can receive digital broadcasting signals. They may or may not display high-definition television, which displays data at 720 or 1080 lines, compared to broadcast television's 480 lines.
The programming itself, however, is what really matters. The greatest, most whiz-bang digital television set on the market doesn't help if the programming itself is in standard definition instead of high-definition. (Here's an idea of what high-definition programming is available.) In fact, standard-definition programming might look worse on a high-definition receiver. And even the high-definition programming we do have tends to be in 720p, not 1080i, at this point.
In other words, the stage we're at now is back in the 1960's when people were buying color television sets even though some of the programming was still in black-and-white.
This ends up being a great opportunity for all sorts of Asian companies, large and small, to produce digital televisions sold in price-sensitive outlets such as online and electronics discounters, and they're the ones making big, splashy announcements here at CES. Sales figures from analysts such as DisplaySearch show a number of vendors we've really never heard of, such as Vizio and Syntax, but which because of their size can respond much more quickly – and cheaply – than larger vendors. Most television manufacturing nowadays is from Asia.
Most digital television sets sold today are going to be capable of displaying high-definition television signals and programming, and programming is increasingly going to be moving to 720i, so it's unlikely that you're going to want a 480i digital television even if you could find one.
Where this is also going to be interesting is in the border areas. Currently Canada and Mexico broadcast analog television the same as the U.S., and have not specified a deadline for digital television broadcasting (though a number of Canadian stations do offer digital television broadcasting and high-definition programming). So unless this changes, people in those border areas accustomed to receiving programming from the other country may run into problems after the February 2009 deadline.
Scott Fulton: Seems like there are more than a few accidents waiting to happen in this segment of the market. Thanks again, Sharon.
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